Asian Research Journal of Agriculture

Sapota (Manilkara achras) is an important tropical fruit crop in India with scope for expansion in international markets. This study evaluated the growth, variability and trade direction of Indian sapota exports across major destination countries using secondary country-wise export data for 2002-03 to 2024-25. The analysis was divided into Period I (2002-03 to 2011-12), Period II (2012-13 to 2024-25) and the overall period. Compound annual growth rate, coefficient of determination, Cuddy–Della Valle instability measures and Markov chain analysis were used to examine export quantity, export value and market retention. During Period I, export quantity recorded significant positive growth in Canada, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. In Period II, significant declines were observed for Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Other destinations. Over the overall period, export quantity declined significantly for the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and Other destinations. In contrast, export value increased significantly across all selected destinations, with the highest overall growth in Canada (12.56 per cent), followed by Bahrain (10.80 per cent). Markov chain results showed that the United Arab Emirates had the highest market-retention probability at 64 per cent, followed by Bahrain at 51 per cent. The findings indicate a divergence between export quantity and value and substantial instability across destinations, highlighting the importance of quality consistency, stable market linkages and destination diversification.