Time Series Modeling and Forecasting of Finger Millet Cultivation Area, Production and Productivity in Chhattisgarh, India: The Box Jenkins Methodology
Ram Prasad Chandra
Department of Economics, Government Madan Lal Shukla Postgraduate College Seepat, (Chhattisgarh) India, Pin – 495555, India.
Bhagawat Prasad Sahu *
Department of Economics, Mahesh Baghel Ji Keshkal Dandkaranya Government College Keshkal, (Chhattisgarh) India, Pin – 49433, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Chhattisgarh has taken important steps towards promoting millets cultivation and improving the livelihood of farmers. To increase millets production in Chhattisgarh, the state government launched the Millet Mission in September 2021. This mission has been started with a view to make Chhattisgarh the ‘millet hub of India’. The present study was conducted on time series modelling and forecasting of finger millet crops in Chhattisgarh India using Box Jenkins methodology and used historical data on currently cultivated area, production and yield of finger millet crops. The time series data was collected from 2001 to 2023, and analysis of the study was carried out using path analysis and Box Jenkins ARIMA model; and among various 20 models the best and suitable ARIMA (0, 1, 2), (3, 1, 1) and (2, 0, 4) model was selected based on AIC, BIC, MAPE, RMSE, MAE. With the help of the selected appropriate model, the cultivation area, production and yield of finger millet cultivation in Chhattisgarh was forecasted for the year 2024 to 2030. But marvellous, diminishing and fluctuating trend was observed in finger millet cultivation area and production over the forecast period. Whereas increasing and stochastic trend was observed in finger millet yield over the forecast period.
Keywords: Finger millet, forecasting, ARIMA, AIC, ACF, MAPE